23 / February
23 / February
Will Iraq Break Apart?

Iraq is an artificial nation-state jig-sawed-puzzled together by colonial powers. Divided by religion, ethnicity, and language, Iraqis might have been better off living in separate Iraqs--Kurdish, Shiite, and Sunni states--than in one Iraq. One way to keep such disparate groups together is force, the method favored by Saddam Hussein. But Iraq without the gun to its head may seek to divide. A war of separation could be bloody, just as America's own war of separation was bloody. If a parting of ways occurs, and it is by no means a certainty, Wednesday's Sunni attack on the Shiite Askariya Shrine doesn't bode well for a peaceful goodbye. Kill a person and you make enemies of his family. Bomb a 1200-year-old holy site and you make enemies with an entire religious sect. In addition to the dangerous religious passions already inflamed, there are other negatives to consider: irresponsible neighbors, geographically concentrated wealth that would make division economically costly for Sunnis, and a recent history of violence and brutality. Iraqis hoping for a quick American exit should be careful what they wish for. Order has a tendency to breakdown, as the American military knows too well from its Iraq experience, when the old order suddenly goes away.

posted at 12:01 AM
Comments

Socialism doesn't work - whether the federal government tries it within our borders, or outside them.

It shouldn't be people like Howard Dean who are the main ones making this point. More of us on the Right need to stand up for our conservative Republican principles, like we did for Kosovo.

Posted by: Aakash on February 23, 2006 03:18 AM

"Bring 'em on, I'd prefer a straight fight to all this sneaking around!" - H.S.

Posted by: Homer J. Fong on February 23, 2006 10:52 AM

I get the impression that the significance of the mosque bombing is being severly underestimated. Civil war in Iraq is pretty much a given. A much larger regional war between religious factions is what I see. How can it even be avoided? The "golden mosque" seems to be 2nd in importance only to Mecca for the Shia. How are Shiites not honor bound to wage jihad at this point?

Posted by: obi juan on February 23, 2006 11:50 AM

Hey, how’s that Constitution working out for them?

Hate to say it, but these people are primitives who, at this point in time, can only be ruled by a dictator who would need to subjugate them to keep them from killing each other.

Keep only the troops needed to protect the oil fields and refineries and pull the rest.

Posted by: asdf on February 23, 2006 12:06 PM

Iraq isn't going to break apart. They'll have their little scuffle until they tire themselves out and then stop, as usual. That's how they get things done over there.

The Kurds will secede before too long, methinks,but the Shiites and Sunnis will end up staying together.

Posted by: Ben-T on February 23, 2006 04:36 PM

"Iraq isn't going to break apart...The Kurds will secede before too long." Could you elaborate? This seems a contradiction.

Posted by: Dan Flynn on February 23, 2006 04:42 PM

I agree with asdf...frack em, let them kill each other off. Take their oil, Convert them to christianity or perish from the earth

Posted by: James on February 23, 2006 04:45 PM

"The Kurds will secede before too long...."

Turkey will not allow an autonomous Kurdistan.

Posted by: Ralph on February 23, 2006 04:52 PM

That doesn't accomplish our objective. Our objective isn't the oil, it's having a powerful, pro-US base of operations with which to influence the region.

The mistake wasn't trying to keep Iraq unified, it was trying to turn an artificial state into a democracy. We should have granted the Kurds their independence as a reward for cooperation, and then gotten a pro-US strongman to run the Sunni and Shiite zones.

Posted by: Ben-T on February 23, 2006 04:53 PM

P.S: This is an event of macrohistorical importance, on level with The Battle of Tours or 9/11. So far Sadrites have killed 130 Sunnis and damaged or destroyed 184 Sunnis mosques in retaliation. What happens now will decide the future of Iraq. Baghdad PoliSci professor Hazim al-Naimi puts it better than I could:

"The issue hangs on the next few days. Either the gates of hell open onto a civil war or the Shi'ites will take more power."

Posted by: Ben-T on February 23, 2006 05:43 PM

California Yankee thinks not. Quoting from an Agence France-Presse news article:

"As of now seven attacks on mosques across Iraq have taken place that resulted in damage to mosques. Two Sunni imams (prayer leaders) and one Sunni sheikh were murdered," Lynch told reporters, playing down the sectarian strife.

Some drive-by shootings against mosques have been reported ... that's where we are. So we are not seeing civil war igniting in Iraq. We are not seeing 77, 80, 100 mosques damaged in Iraq. We are not seeing death on the streets

Bill Roggio gives a list of things to look for that would indicate a civil war was about to happen. None of them are happening.

What has actually happened, the "Zarqawi Plan" has backfired. Shiites and Sunnis throughout the Middle East are now at each others throats. Shiite Cleric Muqtada Al Sadr sent his Mahdi Army troops to defend and protect Sunni Mosques in Iraq. Ayatollah Sistani has called for a halt in the violence and seven days of mourning. Even the Sunnis, who are pleading innocent in the bombing, are trying to stay engaged in the process to create a coalition government in Iraq - after the first retaliations by the Shiites. This will slowly die down and the blame will end up where it belongs on Al Qaeda. It is the dumbest thing they could have done and they cannot undo it now.

Posted by: Michael on February 24, 2006 01:38 AM

It would appear that the Iraqi Security Forces have managed to restore the peace. And without American help, too.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/02/24/AR2006022400178.html?nav=rss_email/components

Posted by: Ben-T on February 24, 2006 03:45 PM

It strikes me as being funny that the same people who are pi$$ed off about religious cartoons are the same who are blowing up mosques. These people are insane.

Posted by: asdf on February 26, 2006 11:12 AM
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