14 / August
14 / August
Cease Fire

Israel witnessed the creation of Hezbollah the last time it invaded Lebanon. This time, Israel could not inaugurate its destruction. By virtue of surviving the onslaught of the Israeli military, Hezbollah emerges from the war bloodied, though still standing, and thus it can claim victory. The losers, clearly, are the Lebanese people, who are more than 1,000 fewer because of the Israeli offensive and don't have the ejection from their midst of the private army Hezbollah to show for it. Israel, too, loses. The kidnapped soldiers they went to war over remain in the hands of their captors. Hezbollah remains armed and in charge in southern Lebanon. Israel made bitter enemies of the Christians and moderate Muslims living in a neighboring country and provoked international opprobrium over the killing of civilians. And Israel, of course, endured hundreds of casualties. Perhaps it's too early to assess the war. The combatants have ceased firing. But they haven't really laid down their arms, have they? The weapons are on safe, but they're at the ready, fully loaded.

posted at 10:38 AM
Comments

This is unmitigated defeat for Israel, should it end here. They have completed NONE of their major objectives, neither retrieving their soldiers nor destroying Hezbollah. They may still keep their security zone, we'll see.

Hezbollah, meanwhile, completed its only objective-fight Israel and come out alive, more than well. Not only that, but with Syria and Iran hardly even SCOLDED for their huge roles in this entire affair, they can count the Lebanon theatre as a victory in their war on the west.

Theres no two ways around it, if this war ends now it wasn't a slight Israeli victory of even a draw. Israel lost, Hezbollah won.

Posted by: Ben-T on August 14, 2006 11:38 AM

There is no victory either way with terrorists. Israel is in a life and death struggle for the long run and they know it. They also know that there will be no peace and no end. End of the battle maybe, but certainly not the war. As many Muslims have, Hezbollah has sworn the destruction of Israel. They would love to do this outright. But, in the meantime, they will use terror weaken and demoralize. It’s unfortunate, but the only way Israel will get this to stop for any extended period of time will be by blasting the bejeezus out of Southern Lebanon and taking the fallout for any collateral damage.

Posted by: asdf on August 14, 2006 02:43 PM

The campaign in Lebanon marks a turning point in this war on terror. It's time to honestly start assessing what western civilization's chances are of surviving this war. So far, every time western civilization and radical Islamists have come to blows, the result has been defeat for the west, save for Iraq and Afghanistan, which are still in progress, and neither of which is going well for us. Time and time again, when it has come down to it, against all odds, the Islamists have defeated the west. Recent riots, honor killings, etc, seem to illustrate the Europe is well on its way to falling.

Our goal is to neutralize Islamic terror as a existential threat to western civilization. Their goal is to destroy the west. So far, they seem to be much closer to achieving their objectives than we are to achieving ours.

Posted by: Ben-T on August 14, 2006 07:48 PM

Given the task at hand, to destroy Israel and eradicate Western Culture, these people and their followers can not be engaged in negotiations or any form of reasonable discussion. They are fanatics and strike fear even in people of their own countries who don't agree with their extreme methods to the point where those people will not act against them.

And as all they understand is force, unfortunately it may come to a point where a final solution via a nuclear option is necessary. If not, as conventional warfare probably will not work, it's likely to be a long and bloody WWIII.

Posted by: asdf on August 14, 2006 09:16 PM

Our best hope, I think, is a civilizational civil war within Islam between the Shi'ites and Sunnis. That way, we could play them both off of each other at our leisure and generally stay out of it.

Posted by: Ben-T on August 15, 2006 01:09 AM

If you need any more perspective on the mid east situation, consider that although Lebanon has a small standing army, they have not mobilized to quell guerilla actions by Hezbollah and only now move as part of a U.N. force. Are the Lebanese people demanding that Hezbollah cease and desist? Are they prodding the government to mobilize troops to stop Hezbollah? Why are other Arab countries not funneling money and arms to the Lebanese Army but are to a terrorist organization?

Posted by: asdf on August 15, 2006 10:15 AM

I would have expected France, China, and Russia to push for a cease fire when they did. I'm also not surprised Britian folded so quickly. I would have expected more from America and Israel.

Much is being discussed about lessons that we should have learned. To be certain there are many. There will be many mistakes in any war. I think the biggest lesson we should have learned is short of a Dresden type response or nuclear attack there is simply no way a group as powerful and dug in as Hezbollah can be "disarmed" or that a stable "buffer" between Israel and Hezbollah can be accomplished in only one month.

Westerners expect wars to be easy. Even five years after 911, we are still expecting things to go faster than is realisticly possible. To make a significant difference, Israel would have needed at least three months and probably longer. I'm appalled that the US and Israel folded so quickly.

The best way to view this is like round one in a long fight. Iran, Syria, and Lebanon won round one. Hezbollah is a proxy of Iran, Syria, and Lebanon. They will be back sooner or later. Probably sooner. In the next round, I pray that the Israeli and American governments find the back bone to stick this out to the conclusion no matter how difficult it might be.

Another lesson we can't learn soon enough is the mere fact that people vote is irrelevant. What matters is how they vote. When we pushed for Democracy we allowed Islamic extremists into the political process. We should not have. Islamic extremism is incompatible with liberty. This is a mistake that may plague us for years to come. Hezbollah is a subsidiary of Iran. Lebanon is owned by Hezbollah. In other words, there is no difference between Lebanon, as a whole, and Hezbollah. That said there are likely a few people in Lebanon who are not in league with Hezbollah but on the whole the country is Hezbollah. The invasion ripped away the facade that Lebanon is a friendly democracy. Publically, at least, the American government does not get this. I pray they grasp this by the time the next round comes.

Posted by: B.Poster on August 16, 2006 12:11 AM

Both sides are claiming victory. But, there can be only one winner and one loser and the winner will be the one standing over the loser's bloodied body. For the Israelis, restraint has been the order of the day. Unfortunately, as in many current military operations, slanted reporting by the press and political correctness has had as much impact on this conflict’s outcome as the forces involved have. Hate to say it, but anything short of completely annihilating their enemy regardless of collateral damage and Israel will be vulnerable and continue to be a weakened target.

Posted by: asdf on August 16, 2006 09:56 AM
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