03 / December
03 / December
One Month to Iowa

From purely a spectator's point of view, primary season is shaping up to be a lot of fun. On the Democratic side, one sees the possibility of the frontrunner toppled. On the Republican side, there really is no frontrunner. Surprises make for entertaining politics, and 2008 promises a few surprises.

Since 1964, the GOP candidate everybody thought would win the nomination won the nomination. Boring stuff. Rudy Giuliani leads nationally, but the schedule of early states does not favor him. Thompson, should he stick around, figures to score well in the South. Romney, boasting more home states than any candidate since George H.W. Bush, not only will win in Michigan, Utah, and Massachusetts but generally posts leads in Iowa and New Hamphshire. John McCain, who won New Hampshire in 2000, stands poised to shake things up by earning the important endorsement of the Manchester Union Leader. To confuse matters further, Mike Huckabee, with a committed base of religious conservatives, now leads in Iowa, and Ron Paul, with millions in the campaign coffers, seems the prototypical candidate who stubbornly and consistently pulls his share of primary voters to the very end. When the dust clears, it's possible that the winner will not be clear. The political gods wouldn't be so kind as to bless us with a fractured convention, would they?

Hillary Clinton has been the Democratic frontrunner in the 2008 presidential race since she won her senate seat in 2000. Now Barack Obama bests her in polls of likely Iowa caucus goers. John Edwards is competitive too. In several hypothetical head-to-head matchups with Republicans, Clinton now loses. With removal of her aura of invincibility--the single greatest attraction her candidacy offers--will Clinton's numbers continue to drop?

Enjoy the spectacle of primary season. When the elections are over, and governing begins, it won't be so enjoyable. Hearing "I, Rudolph William Louis Giuliani, do solemnly swear..." or "I, Hillary Rodham Clinton, do solemnly swear..." is not my idea of a good time.

posted at 12:19 AM
Comments

Just got a cold chill up my spine reading that last paragraph.

Posted by: asdf on December 3, 2007 10:57 AM

Unrelated to Iowa...

The gods of football sure are smiling on the Pats. That did Kornheiser say in describing the Ravens demise and impending Patriots victory? "Tragic inevitability"?

Posted by: doug on December 3, 2007 10:01 PM

He did. One of the few good things to ever come out of his mouth.

Posted by: Ancient Mariner on December 4, 2007 10:17 AM

What is his purpose on Monday Night Football? Tony Kornhole should stick with PTI and basketball.

Posted by: asdf on December 4, 2007 10:45 AM

That's funny, I call him "Kornhole" also.

Posted by: Ancient Mariner on December 4, 2007 12:21 PM

I find Tony rather funny and insightful, granted this is not hard given the terrible standards of commentators these days. Although he clearly doesn't know much about the sport he definately offers a unique perspective. Oh and if one wants to be entertained you can't go wrong with a small Jewish guy?!

Posted by: AB on December 4, 2007 04:00 PM

I still don't think Clinton will win the Dem nomination. But where Barack beating her in polls in Iowa really hurts is that it means independents will largely vote in the Dem primary in NH taking votes away from Ron Paul.

It seems that the GOP powers that be and the MSM have decided to make no funding and no volunteer support Huckabee the big contender on the Republican side. The guy is even more "compassionate" (i.e. liberal) a conservative then GWB. It is amazing to me that the GOP controllers for some reason decided that shying away (and then running away) from being actually conservative would serve them well in competing for power. Recall the first Bush trying to flub following Reagan by saying, "I'm conservative, but I'm not a nut about it." It was thanks to Dukakis that he could win even one election. Now we have Huckabee who likes to say he's a conservative, "just not mad at anybody." That is code for "I am not a conservative at all, you liberal media elites have nothing to fear from me as I fleece the Republican base!"

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