Sandra Day O'Connor, a long-time swing-vote on the Supreme Court, announced her retirement today. Her departure, the Arizonan noted, is "effective upon the nomination and confirmation of my successor." Does not this careful language preclude George W. Bush from making a recess appointment should his adversaries block O'Connor's successor?

A recess appointment would be just as controversial as the 'constitutional option'.

My worst fear is that Bush will appoint Gonzalez. If he does, the Republican's will surely lose the White House and Senate (Short's denials notwithstanding). I wonder whether conservatives in the Senate would oppose Gonzalez. Conversely, would the Democrats support Gonzalez (he's likely to be the most liberal nominee they'll see)?

At any rate, it will bring about a much needed national debate on abortion.

Thinking that the 2008 elections (Presidency / Senate) will be won or lost over a single or even multiple Supreme Court nominees is slightly short sided. I cannot think of anyone who’s ever told me they voted for a President because who a former President did or did not nominate to the high court, nor can I think of any US Senator who effectively lost their seat over how they voted for Supreme Court nominee. Nominees to the high court only ignite (sometimes depress) the bases of each party and those are folks who are going to vote along party lines pretty much all the time. The independent voters who actually make or break elections vote for President and their representatives by asking themselves who will do a better job, who will make a better leader and which candidate is promoting policies that they agree with - not over who the last President and Congress put on the bench.

Of course it does, O'Connor is perfectly capable of such "legalese" tactics.

Independents do not determine the outcomes of elections, where do you get that? Now that I think of it who does determine the outcome? Tough to say b/c somehow one always has to take a ton of groups and votes for granted in order to favor one particular contingent.

My prediction:

Bush will nominate Gonzales. Movement conservatives will ignore the fact that he supports illegal immigration, affirmative action, legalized abortion, and gun control, because he supports torturing Iraqi prisoners which is the only litmus test to get the Rush Limbaugh seal of approval today.

Democrats, who agree with him on almost every domestic issue, will scream that he is an extremist and Bush is forcing his radical right wing agenda down the nation. The word judicial activist will probably used by them. Their main complaint will be his support of torture and suppresssion of civil liberties.

Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, Ann Coulter, Michelle Malkin, Senate Republicans and all the Freepers will complain how terribly racist the democrats are, because there's no reason why anyone would not like him except for racism. They will also say that race had nothing to do with Bush picking him, but they will also say "this proves that we are not the white christian party that Howard Dean says we are. Furthermore, the racist conduct of the democrats during these hearings show that they are alienating the Hispanic vote which the Republicans will win in a landslide in 2008."

Gonazales will get nominated. Rush Limbaugh will talk about how far conservatives have come in taking back the court. Liberals will claim that it's just a matter of time before Roe v. Wade and Brown vs. Board of Education gets overturned.

in about 5 to ten years later, A federal court case will mandate that all states allow homosexual marriage. Gonzales will vote for the majority. Fox News will say, well at least you didn't vote for Kerry, and remember to vote for George P. Bush, if you don't vote for him, think what will happen to the Supreme Court!

Marcus,

I know you're employing hyperbole to some extent, but I don't disagree with you.

Maybe Condi will use the fact Gonzales is the first hispanic justice on the Supreme Court to shill for the US war machine in Iraq and for "staying the course" (afterall, as she once pointed out, it took us the longest time to become a multicultural nirvana, therefore we need to have patience in Iraq).

If Gonzales or someone like him is the nominee, I have to say it will be interesting to see the reaction of the "lesser of two evils" crowd who kept playing the Supreme Court nominee fear card last November.

Gays being allowed to marry, oh da howwow.