Osama bin Laden issued this year's "October surprise." His videotaped message (his first in over a year) sought to influence the U.S. elections on Tuesday. It will, but not in the way intended. Americans are not Spaniards.

This spring, orchestrated bombings on passenger trains and rail stations in Spain dramatically influenced elections in that country. Going into the final weeks of the campaign, conservatives held commanding leads in the polls. The bombings happened, public opinion shifted, and socialists won the election. The new government's policies were far more agreeable to Islamic terrorists, particularly its decision to withdraw from Iraq and distance itself from the Bush administration.

Stunts like that pulled on the eve of the American election will have a very different effect. Any shift in the debate towards national security issues, particularly the war on terrorism, helps Bush and hurts Kerry. Bin Laden may have hoped to hurt Bush, but he didn't. He helped him, greatly.

He did so because he misunderstands Americans. Bin Laden confuses Americans for Europeans. Issuing threats, tacit or otherwise, might compel Frenchmen or Spaniards to recraft policy to better suit the interests of terrorists. Americans, however, live in a different hemisphere and behave in a different manner. Bin Laden's threats are far less likely to result in the American people giving bin Laden what he wants, than they are in the American people giving him something he doesn't want--a bomb dropped on his head. The man more likely to do this, the American people believe, is George Bush and not John Kerry.

Has anyone seen any polling specifically on the OBL tapes? I can't tell any difference in the poll data since it came out since the race is still very close. I agree with Dan that the tape would help Bush but I haven't seen the data to point that out yet.

Have you seen the polls since the video tape? It seems that the tapes have gone against GWB. I expected a bump for Bush. However, thus far, Kerry has picked up 2 points in most polls I have seen today. Of course, these are national polls and they do not reflect exactly how each individual state will sway, as we saw with a Gore popular vote victory 4 years ago. We can hope only that the American people will realize that Bush is the man for the job and he will be victorious on Tuesday. I prefer to continue sending troops to kill the terrorists than the John Kerry appeasement and lawyer approach.

Drudge links to a story about a poll conducted for Kerry asking an OBL-tape question. The question is put obviously unfairly, I guess because they are polling for Kerry: "I'm going to read you a paraphrasement about the release of Bin Laden's videotape, please tell me what comes closer to your view: One, it makes me think that George W. Bush took his eye of the ball in Afghanistan and diverted his resources to Iraq; Two, it underscores the importance of George Bush's approach to terrorism." 46-36% favored the Kerry side.

Anyhow, I think that this tape, if discussed in the media the way the al Qaqaa thing was would really help the president. But the media don't seem to be repeating it often enough to guarantee that it sinks in to the average voter.

The other thing to notice is that the poll was taken Friday night to Saturday morning, so this would probably be too early for a real sinking in to the average voter. These types of thigns take a little while for their significance to affect your opinions. This is shown in the 18% who didn't favor either alternative. So the question is whether this stuff is discussed today and tomorrow, and if it's not the media is a bunch of aging hipping liberal do....

The polls should go against the president. After 911 the president had a choice, prosecute the war on terror or try to invade Iraq and remake the mideast. He chose Iraq, and Osama is still alive and kicking.

Elmo,

How exactly does one "prosecute" the war on terror? Will this war happen to call a witness to the stand?

I was always against the Iraq War and it doesn't further success against Al Qaeda but, Elmo, he invaded Iraq 2 years after 9/11. It wasn't exactly as simple as a choice made after 9/11.

Some words have more than one meaning.

dictionary.com
2a. To pursue (an undertaking, for example) until completion; follow to the very end.

2 years of preperation and waiting for the UN. The decision was made in the days following 911. It's all in Woodward's book.

I happen to agree with you all about it helping Bush. But i may be the only one who sees this but i see this as a last resort by OBL. His people are getting killed and we are covering more terrain putting less distance between us and him. He know this. Hence the videotape telling us to stop for our security or his? Granted he could carry out a few more attacks but his time is coming. He's scared. His feeling on us in palastine are not warm and wanting. Why? Because he knows a solution is right around the corner, with Arafat soon in the gutter. His old age wont hold out much longer. Time has come for things to change i think soon in the next few years things will def look better for Israel and Palastine. He wants us out of the middle east in the interest of self preservation for him and his clan. Atleast thats my weird way of interpreting a psycho freak like himself. -Tim

Osama is in the best possible position he could be. Remember that this tape was broadcast on Al Jazerra. It was meant first and foremost for arabs, particularly Iraqis. Right now Iraqis are only fighting us in their own country, and being secular were probably weary of Osama in general. But in the tape his religiousity was toned down. It was an appeal to Iraqis to join Al Qaeda in attacking the US outside their borders. It will probably work quite well so long as we stay in Iraq.

Of course America is not Spain. Spain has 80 percent of thier population against the Iraq war. Here the figure is fifty. This tape will not have much an effect at all. Both sides will try to use it to thier advantage, with zero net gain for either canidate.