I won't be preoccupied with what Mitt Romney and Barack Obama say tonight. I am interested in how they carry themselves. Will one of the candidates sigh and invade the other's personal space? Will the president habitually glance down at his watch? Will a candidate show up with a sickly, sweaty pallor and a five-o'clock shadow? Politicians win or lose the public based on emotional, rather than intellectual, connections.
My election predictions are coming true. Obushma's poll numbers have dropped significantly since the "gaffes" (the true thoughts and feelings of conservatives), which have done nothing to hurt Romney with his base. This election will be about bringing the base to the polls, and has been since the Rove/Bush era. This is why Rove was so successful; he understood that energizing the base is the only way to win an election. The whole idea of appealing to moderates in this political age is idiotic.
Conventional wisdom has Romney and Obushma drawing in tonight's debate. If Romney manages to draw tonight and in the two subsequent debates, and barring any major and actual gaffes, Romney will win the presidency by 2-4% points nationally, with narrow victories in Ohio, Virginia, and Florida.
The Intrade markets have Obushma at 7.30 a share, down from 7.90, just as I predicted. Those share prices will continue to plummet.
Itís unfortunate that in this American Idol oriented country we live in that politics and theater are thisclose. Itís more unfortunate that all Barack Insane Obama has going for him is presentation and a flare for politics while Mitt Romneyís only flaw is that he is not a politician and merely a really good CEO.
Obamaís mismanagement and piss poor incompetent handling of the economy and international affairs will be masked by smooth baritones while Romney could explain how he would be best to improve this country until the cows come home and most people will barely listen.
This debate will likely determine if this country opts to continue to be the United States of America or head toward a third world banana republic under the most dangerous and flawed Chief Executive in history.
"The whole idea of appealing to moderates in this political age is idiotic."
I could not agree more. This is something the Romney campaign has yet to get a handle on.
I don't understand why this is so. And I really don't understand why, for the last 20 years, no candidate has taken up the flag of true regualtory reform to bring back the manufacturing sector. I assume that is due to the extreme fear of the Environmental crowd (as they would be up in arms over any effective changes to the regulatory landscape), but surely the average American would agree that we can't afford to deprive ourselves of food and housing just to make ourselves feel better about an imagined "saving" of the planet. If Romney truely went this bold (I know he won't), the debate would hinge on issues as well. The media can ignore or refuse to air good arguments on the President's turf, they CAN'T ignore stark policy differences.
"we can't afford to deprive ourselves of food and housing just to make ourselves feel better about an imagined "saving" of the planet."
There are 18.5 million vacant homes, and 3.5 million homeless people.
There is a food surplus in our country every year.
The only reason we are domestically depriving anyone of these things is because there is no profit to be had.
Obama blinked and avoided eye contact more. I think it was a tie on Logos, Romney won on pathos and ethos. Romney started strong but Obama had more time.