06 / November
06 / November
Romney 292, Obama 246

Mitt Romney will win today. He polls better among independents. The enthusiasm gap favors Republicans. The salient issue for most voters, the economy, helps the challenger and hurts the incumbent. Romney's most committed voters are also the most committed voters (people who can be counted on to cast ballots) and Obama's core constituency (young people, minorities) are the least reliable voters. Add to this the fact that challengers almost always take the lion's share of undecided voters (there's fewer of them this election) and that Republicans generally underpoll (albeit, only slightly). On this last point, consider the last two times when Republicans challenged an incumbent president. In 1980, the final Gallup poll showed Reagan up three; he won by ten. In 1996, the final CBS poll overstated Clinton's lead over Dole by ten points. Polls are as infallible as pollsters. The top line of the current polls suggests an Obama victory. But bother to glimpse at the fine print and one realizes the trouble in which the president finds himself. Take the Des Moines Register's recent survey of Iowa voters, which shows Obama up 47-42 over Romney. On the surface, a five-point deficit seems pretty insurmountable a day before the election. So I understand why anyone looking at that poll might automatically think: Obama has Iowa in the bag. But the internals show a +5 Democrat advantage. In 2008, Democrats enjoyed a +1 advantage in Iowa. Does even the most loyal MSNBC viewer think Democrats are more amped up to vote for Obama now than they were four years ago? This poll, and others like it, aren't polling 2012's electorate. They are Potemkin polls. Given all of this data, it's not my gut but my head that buys a Romney victory. It will be close, and the flip of a few states would hand Obama the election. Of the contested states, I see the Republican nominee winning, in ascending order of difficulty, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado, Virginia, Iowa, Ohio, and Wisconsin. I see Obama retaining Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire. If you have a prediction, or a criticism of mine, share it--with as much or as little detail and justification as you care to include--in the comments section.

posted at 12:00 AM

My original prediction was R 275 O 263. R wins McCain + IN, OH, VA, NC, FL, and CO. I believe that the polls are underestimating conservative enthusiasm, and voting machines are owned by members of the Romney family and corporations sympathetic to corporatist policies that will be ratified by Romney.

There are no voter tracking mechanisms coded on machines used in PA. Because of this, they are susceptible to systemic voter fraud, which could benefit Romney. Due to the R campaign's 10 million play over the weekend, a PA victory due to box stuffing and voter suppression in urban areas could be dismissed as simply a victory due to high conservative enthusiasm. Had I known this I would have amended my prediction on Intrade to an R 295 - O 243 election outcome.

Individual voter fraud, a manufactured, retarded non-issue raised by Teabags and establishment Republicans, is almost non-existent and only a handful of charges have been brought against individuals committing individual voter fraud over the past 15 or so years. Systemic voting fraud is a problem, and with no voter tracking mechanisms on Romney and corporate-owned machines, there is no way to discover or prosecute that type of systemic voter fraud.

Posted by: PMA on November 6, 2012 11:56 AM

I do think that polls are generally overestimating progressive enthusiasm and underestimating conservative enthusiasm. The main problem facing pollsters in determining voter demographics is that the country is becoming less and less white, which favors Democrats in elections. This is why Karl Rove, perhaps the greatest political mind of the past half century, aggressively tried to bring more minorities into the Republican tent.

In any other election year, Republicans would get trounced and there's really no clear path for Republicans to win national elections in the future if they continue to piss on minority voters. The country isn't white enough for Teabags and conservatives to win. 2012 is special because of the deplorable state of the economy and depressed liberal/progressive enthusiasm.

Posted by: PMA on November 6, 2012 12:02 PM

Actually, the systemic voter fraud related to Romney-owned machines in PA is much worse than I had originally managed. The touch-screen technology is calibrated to select Romney whether you tap Obama or Romney. There are multiple reports of this in Republican-leaning PA districts, and there will most likely be a Justice Dept. investigation of this phenomenon.

It's telling that Teabags and conservatives love the idea of corporate and candidate-owned voting machines. You'd have to live in an alternate universe, be a total ethical egoist, or be retarded to think that voting machines should be owned by private corporations and individuals, and not the American public.


Posted by: PMA on November 6, 2012 12:19 PM

PMA, we all know you don't like Republicans, but that's still no reason to resort to cheap shots such as calling us "Teabags", etc. It doesn't help your cause's image at all.

And for the record, this Illinois Republican voted for Gary Johnson.

Posted by: Matt on November 6, 2012 04:24 PM

PMA- "It's the economy stupid" James Carville

Posted by: Freedom on November 6, 2012 04:49 PM

I actually guessed just the opposite. Last night I thought Obaama would win with 292 electoral votes. Looks like I was short, but still within the ballpark.

Posted by: Eric Wilds on November 7, 2012 02:01 AM

You don't get it Matt. PMA and his ilk have used the tactics of insults and character assassination successfully and there is apparently no reason to not continue because there are no penalties against people who act like and are assholes.

There is no payback for people like him in the modern United States of KKK.

Posted by: asdf on November 7, 2012 08:18 AM
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