08 / November
08 / November
Prediction? Pain

Mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa. Would you believe that the seeds of my 2012 prediction deriliction were planted in John Kerry's 2004 loss?

Here's what I wrote here four years ago about my election-day experience four years earlier: "I went on SkyNews with Sidney Blumenthal. Despite being the token conservative talking head, I refused to put on a brave face and tell the world that John Kerry would lose. I didn't believe it. I had encountered the same exit polls as my debating partner. They indicated a Kerry triumph. Blumenthal was absolutely giddy and I was, though not glum, a bit angry inside that a Bush presidency had not only resulted in bigger, less Constitutional government and a needless war, but in a John Kerry presidency to boot. It didn't look good for George W. Bush, I said to my overseas audience."

Kerry, of course, lost--but not as badly as the exit pollsters. The experience instilled a distrust of polls in me that was certainly on display in my 2012 faulty forecast. I assure you that I didn't listen to "I've Got a Feeling" as I typed. I legitimately thought that Romney would defeat Obama. His lead amongst independents and on the economy--which exit polls showed that he held--fueled my belief. My prediction wasn't homerism geared toward wishing an event true. It was just based on demographic models shown by the past two elections to be outdated. Welcome to the new normal.

Would you presently believe that I have been more Nostradamus than Madame Cleo about the future in the past?

I predicted in 2006 that the Democrats would pick up 25 House seats and four Senate seats. They added 31 and six. Four years ago, I thought that Barack Obama would win the presidency, albeit by a smaller margin than he did. In 2010, I foresaw Republican gains of 58 in the House and nine in the Senate. They ultimately grabbed 63 and six. Did I ever tell you that in my pre-blogging days I pinpointed the percent totals of the threeway 1996 presidential election?

Alas, in the prognostication game, it's all about "What have you done for me lately?" I'm afraid on this point I haven't done much save for giving my Republican readers false hope. Being wrong doesn't bother me as much as Obama being president.

Don't worry. I predict that I will be right about my next prediction. I predict that I will keep making predictions.

posted at 12:03 AM
Comments

I wouldn’t be so hard on yourself Dan, I think most of us read the leaves the way you did. Even many in the opposition were preparing for defeat.

Thought that Romney ran a good substantive campaign and had some solid coalitions and a clear message. Even had a majority of the coveted moderate voters.

What he didn’t have and what helped the President immensely was the liberal Fourth Estate that can never be underestimated in its collusion with the liberal candidate.

In the end, the message could not be more clear – a majority of people in this country want to be taken care of and prefer big government to do it.

Posted by: asdf on November 8, 2012 09:24 AM

Judging from some of the company I keep, I think the Republicans do themselves no favors by running candidates, especially men, who discuss rape and pregnancy. Especially when they express a ridiculous view like the Missouri Senate candidate, and yes this unfortunately affects how all Republicans are viewed.

Also, Republican controlled states passing laws demanding women undergo ultra-sound before aborting also brands the party as a threat to women's rights. This sort of law is unthinkable, or should be, for a party of limited government. Should men submit to lengthy rectal exams before vasectomy? It's nonsense, it hurt Romney's chances, and it is ineffective in persuading women not to abort.

I also think gay marriage is inevitable, so allowing it to remain an issue is another opportunity to lose votes.

Romney is a superior person to Obama; accomplished and possessing a much healthier notion of government. It's a shame we missed this golden opportunity.

Posted by: Webster on November 8, 2012 10:27 AM

Good an@lysis. And I agree that it's best that Republicans should down-play any ‘sex related’ issues. Especially as reversing the 19th Amendment is not in the cards.

It's quite amazing that reproductive rights have taken precedence over a crumbling economy with miniscule growth, high un-employment, strangling national debt, inflation and untenable energy costs.

But there it is.

Posted by: asdf on November 8, 2012 10:53 AM
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