02 / November
02 / November
Election Day Forecast

When the forecast calls for a blizzard, and you only get a snowstorm, there's a bit of a letdown. That's the risk for Republicans today. The expectation level is so astronomically high that anything less than historic gains will be seen as underwhelming. That said, my sense is that the gains will be on the level of the landslides in 1946, 1966, and 1994. The GOP will take back the House of Representatives by winning 58 seats and fall short of recapturing the Senate by picking up seats in--from most confident to least confident--in North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Nevada, Colorado, and Washington. It's certainly possible that Raese could beat Manchin in West Virginia and Fiorina could beat Boxer in California (just as it is possible that some of my GOP pick-up predictions don't come through). However, Manchin ran a great campaign, polls above 50 percent, and hasn't looked back since retaking a lead in the race, and Boxer, who also has consistently led in her race, benefits from Gerry Brown's coattails and Obama's persistent popularity in the Golden State. Richard Blumenthal is eclipsing fifty percent and has been besting Linda McMahon by solid margins. If there is a Republican wave, it's not likely to hit a state like Connecticut the hardest. So I see a slim but unlikely chance for a Republican pick up there. Compared with the expert handicappers, I am slightly more bullish on Republican pick ups in the Senate and within the standard range for GOP gains in the House.

posted at 12:19 AM
Comments

I felt the same way when I voted this morning. I'm confident, but not over the top with regard to Republican gains as expectations based on what most of the pundits have said have been over the top.

Obviously, I'd love to see a GOP/TP landslide but even if it turns out not to be, if many of the key destructivley loathesome Democrat offenders now in office are extracted, I will be very happy.

The bigger they are, the harder they should fall to send a message to the Marxist ideologue in the White House.

Posted by: asdf on November 2, 2010 10:49 AM

Can it be any more apparent that the dumbing down of the electorate in some of the premier blue states is close to being complete when Massachusetts, New York and California, states that are bleeding red ink because of liberal spending and policies, choose to maintain the status quo and continue with the liberal Democrat agenda?

Itís quite unbelievable.

It can be summed up for all by the apparently accurate statement made by John Kerry before the election when he said the people of Massachusetts are stupid.

He was right.

Posted by: asdf on November 3, 2010 09:57 AM
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