Sixteen years ago, I remember getting the election results--in those days only a few nerds I knew had the internet--that Republicans had not only won the governorships of Virginia and New Jersey, but had taken Gracie Mansion in Gotham as well. I divined the results as ominous news for the Democrats. It turned out to be so, as Republicans won clobbered the Democrats in the 1994 elections (taking back the House of Representatives for the first time in 40 years). There is a similar mood today, though tonight will demonstrate to what degree. Republicans look a safe bet to win back the Virginia governorship. The New Jersey gubernatorial battle seems neck and neck. And in upstate New York, the fact that no active Republican candidate will be on the ballot is a misleading barometer of the strength of the GOP. Should Republicans win in Virginia and New Jersey, and more importantly, should the Conservative Party candidate win in upstate New York, Democrats will see the ominous clouds on the horizon. Democratic representatives on the fence about ObamaCare will be more apt to abandon the Sinking Ship Obama. Should Democrats win in New Jersey (where Obama campaigned heavily) and upstate New York tonight, look for an emboldened Democratic Party to embrace Obama's agenda more forcefully.

You didn't even make a prediction? Lame.

If I had money on these races I'd put it on the Democrats in New York and New Jersey and the Republican in Virgina. If my first prediction is wrong, I'm still wagering that Republicans fail to retake either the House or Senate in 2010. Here's hoping the Republicans get skunked and lose all three races on Tuesday!

Good piece in the Huffington Post on demographic and unity challenges for Republicans. An excerpt:

"What's more, the GOP's ranks are thinning: Only 32 percent of respondents called themselves Republicans in a recent AP-GfK survey compared with 43 percent who called themselves Democrats.

Also, the party's power center is mostly limited to the South, the one region McCain dominated last fall; Obama won almost everywhere else – including making inroads in emerging powerhouse regions like the West, although Republicans still solidly control several lightly populated states in the area.

And demographic, cultural and, perhaps, economic changes in America tilt in the Democrats' favor. Consider that Hispanics, a part of the Democratic base, are the nation's fastest growing minority group. Consider that more states than ever are permitting same-sex unions; Maine will vote Tuesday on whether to allow gay marriage. Consider that the emerging new industry – so-called "green jobs" – is focused on the environment, a core Democratic issue."

The Huffington Post PMS? Some nervous folks, I'd say.