Eight candidates for the Democratic nomination for president debated in South Carolina Thursday. They all frighten me. Alas, so do most of the Republicans. On the Right, we are supposed to fear a President Hillary Clinton or a President Barack Obama. Believe me, I do. But I wonder if we should fear a Candidate Clinton or a Candidate Obama as much as we should fear a Candidate Edwards or a Candidate Gore. Democrats with a southern accent--Hillary's affected one doesn't count--fare better in general elections than those without. Northern liberals do well in presidential primaries, but do terrible in presidential elections. The scariest Democrat of them all is the one who can win.

Democrats have moved left and north the last sixty years. The relocation has been a disaster. It's moved the party away from the nation. The result is that the dynamics inside the party are profoundly different than the dynamics outside the party. This is less true for Republicans--the GOP has candidates all over the board on the major issues of the day--and was less true for pre-McGovern Democrats.

Since 1952, Democrats have won just five of fifteen presidential contests. Only once, in 1964, in those fifteen elections did a Democratic nominee win a majority of votes. That's a pretty pathetic record at the national level because the party has become regionally and ideologically narrow. In those fifteen elections, Democrats have nominated northerners--who tended to be more liberal--eight times. The result? Democrats lost seven of those eight contests. In contrast, when the Democrats nominated southerners--who tended to be more mainstream, politically and culturally--they boasted a respectable 4-3 record.

So, what are we to make of all this history? Looking back, Bill Clinton was a lot scarier than Michael Dukakis. But this is only because the former won and the latter lost. Before Election Day, the prospect of a Dukakis presidency should have scared conservatives more than the prospect of a Clinton presidency because Dukakis was well to the left of Clinton. Unfortunately, we don't have the benefit of hindsight when we pick a president. We do have the benefit of history. History tells us that the more radical a candidate comes off, the less likely it is that that candidate will win. In other words, the Democrats may be digging their own graves by serving up the candidate that Republicans fear the most and the Republicans may have misplaced anxiety. Give us a New York liberal for a candidate and, if history is any guide, we won't have a New York liberal for a president. The thing about history, though, is that it's always being made.

I was prepared to be impressed with Obama, but just wasn't. Obama live (as prepared remarks Obama) is a halting stream of consciousness full of platitudes. Not very inspiring.

Interesting post. You note that the more politically and culturally mainstream Democrats, who happened to be Southerners, have fared better in the past. But the question is: among Democrats, who's more politically and culturally mainstream this time around? Are the Southerners Gore and Edwards really more mainstream than Clinton and Obama? Personally, I can barely stomach the suggestion that either Gore or Edwards is "mainstream" in any meaningful sense. About all they have on Clinton and Obama in terms of being "mainstream" is the fact that they're white males--a pretty thin and superficial veneer, if any at all.

Why does it surprise people when Obama Hussein Barack fails to impress? He is the feel good candidate for 08'. He is low on substance and high on appearance and political correctness and I would suspect that if he were just another white guy, nobody would know who he was.

That’s pretty ana*lytical stuff Dan.

"Bill Clinton was a lot scarier than Michael Dukakis. But this is only because the former won and the latter lost."

The most dangerous Democrat is the one that will win the election.
I guess it must be Ok to be blindly partisan.

Scariest? Hillary Rodh..., uh, Hillary Clinton. What a cavalcade of lightweights.

Scariest: Hillary. Second scariest: Obama Hussein. There's something slimy about this guy. I bet he has some skeletons in his closet. Plus nobody in thier right mind should vote for a guy with the middle name Hussein. That in itself is scary.