President Bush enjoys slim leads over Senator Kerry in most polls. Just as the World Series is played on the field instead of on paper, the presidential election is decided in ballot boxes around the country rather than through telephone surveys. With this in mind, I've outlined six points that might help readers better interpret poll data.

1. If 2004 is a repeat of 2000, George Bush increases his margin of victory. Population shifts have increased the power of the red states in the electoral college, and thus decreased the power of blue states. Bush took 271 electoral votes to 266 for Gore. If the parties took exactly the same states in 2004, Bush would take 278 electoral votes to Kerry's 260. This is kind of like a head-start for the president before election day even arrives.

2. Undecided voters swing overwhelmingly for the challenger. Polls are fairly accurate predictors of incumbent performance on election day. They notoriously undercount challengers. Whatever Kerry's final poll numbers are, add two or three points to get a more accurate gauge of how he'll do on election day.

3. Undecided voters will be less of a factor in this election than in previous contests. Check out any number of recent polls. Do you see a lot of voters who haven't made up their minds? The natural bounce the challenger receives in the poll that matters on election day will be somewhat negated because the pool of undecided voters is smaller than usual.

4. Nader is a non-factor this time around. Even if voters wish to vote for Ralph Nader, they will be able to do so in most locales only through a write-in. Consider that Nader isn't on the ballot in such battleground states as Pennsylvania, Missouri, New Mexico, Arkansas, Oregon, and West Virginia, in addition to failing to acheive ballot status in such electoral prizes as California, Texas, and Illinois. If Nader wasn't on the ballot in 2000, Gore would have won. Because Nader won't be on most ballots in 2004, Kerry has one less obstacle than his predecessor had.

5. Count on more people voting than in any election in American history. Let's face it: the issues are more important in 2004 than they were in 2000. The United States is at war in Iraq. International terrorists have declared war on us. Add to this 2000's Florida election controversy, which for once gave credibility to the mantra that every vote counts, and all signs point to the number of voters exceeding the 105,000,000 people that cast ballots in 2000. Who does this benefit? People angry about Florida will naturally flock to Kerry. People shocked into voting because of 9/11 will likely go for Bush.

6. The anti-Bush passion is greater than the anti-Kerry passion. Many liberal voters hate George W. Bush. I don't know too many people who hate John Kerry. While the President counts many supporters who would walk through fire to vote for him, he counts more detractors who would walk through fire to vote against him.

In 2000, Governor Bush led in most public opinion polls going into election day. Yet, he lost the popular vote--the thing public opinion polls survey--and barely won the electoral college. Don't get seduced into believing that a slim Bush lead in the polls this weekend translates into a slim Bush victory on Tuesday. It doesn't, necessarily.

Polls are as much art as science. They serve as fairly accurate barometers of public opinion. But opinions, by definition, are fickle. Public opinion shown in these eleventh-hour polls may accurately reflect the sentiment of likely voters now. It's unlikely they will be so precise in how they measure public opinion on November 2.

The Wall St. Journal has an interesting article about the closeness of the election: http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB109875812196655605,00.html?mod=todays_us_page_one

One additional thing to consider: In the 2000 election Bush held a double digit lead with white men, while Gore held a double digit lead with white women. According to every recent pole I've seen, Bush hold a double digit lead with white men, but Bush and Kerry are even among white women.

A Republican-friendly gender gap = a Bush victory.

Actually the turnout among young voters will swing the election to Kerry by four points.