Bush tops Kerry in national polls. Don't delude yourself into thinking that this necessarily means that Bush wins the poll that matters on November 2.

Polls notoriously undercount challengers. This is mainly because undecided voters swing for the challenger on election day. Think about it: if someone is undecided about the politician they've seen on television every day for four years, it likely means that there is something they don't like about the incumbent. Familiarity hasn't bred support for Bush among undecideds by now, so it's not rational to count on many election-booth epiphanies among these swing voters.

Guy Molineux writes in the liberal American Prospect: "the percentage of the vote an incumbent president receives in surveys is an extraordinarily accurate predictor of the percentage he will receive on election day--even though the survey results also include a pool of undecided voters." Molineux examined the last four presidential elections that featured an incumbent and contrasted the sitting president's final poll percentages with his percentage of the vote on election day. The numbers are almost identical.

In these same elections, challengers received on average four points more on election day than they did in the final polls.

What's all this mean for 2004? My sense is that if the final polls mirror the current USA Today/CNN poll--where Bush boasts an eight point lead--then Kerry loses. But if the race tightens, and Bush finds himself with a smaller lead, then Kerry could potentially eke out a victory.

Before Kerry supporters jump for joy upon reading all this, it should be noted that there are fewer undecideds in 2004 than in any election in recent memory. Thus, the natural bump he receives as the challenger from undecideds will likely be smaller than bumps received by Bob Dole, Bill Clinton, Walter Mondale, Ronald Reagan, and others challenging incumbent presidents in recent decades.

So when you see Bush leading by six or eight percentage points in opinion polls, don't jump to the conclusion that he wins by similar margins on election day. It's closer than you think.

Talk about a fickle, dumbed-down electorate! Bush is killing Kerry in the polls on real world issues then has decent showing in the debates by slicking up and bull$hitting his way through them and all of a sudden, he's a serious contender!

This mostly due to the 'undecided' who typically are not computer literate, don't read, barely watch the news and when they do, it's news with the Kerry slant.

Really glad we don't live in a true democracy. The founding Fathers were very smart to recognize that something as serious as picking a President should really be decided by official respresentatives of the Republic.

It really dosen't matter who "wins" on election day. Bush and his boys will take office no matter what the result. Count on it. Bush will be our first dictator.

Amen to that Squishy Boy.

Dan: "Think about it: if someone is undecided about the politician they've seen on television every day for four years, it likely means that there is something they don't like about the incumbent."

That's silly. I'd be willing to bet that the so-called "undecided" voters are the same simple fools that Leno interviews on the street: "How many U.S. Senators do you have and can you name two?" They havn't seen any politician everyday for four years; they likely can't even spell "politician".

Brad, undecideds vote. They tend to vote overwhelmingly for challengers. This isn't silly. This is reality.

As I keep saying IT DOSENT MATTER WHO WINS ON ELECTION DAY. Bush will be our next president, and will remain president for life thereafter. This man is hell-bent on power. He will be the first American dictator.

But the real question Apu is what is that green ooze in the microwave at the Quickie Mart and what would Kerry and Edwards do about it if elected.

I have no doubt that 'undecideds' vote, and that their votes can be decisive. What I deny is your suggestion that they have any reasonable basis for choosing one candidate over another. 'Undecided' is polite for 'too stupid to understand the issues'. They usually end up voting for a candidate's hair.